The shortened, 66-game NBA season tips off tomorrow with a matchup at Madison Square Garden between the New York Knicks and the Boston Celtics. The Knicks have made some big changes to the team that got swept out of the first round of the playoffs by this Celtics team last season. Here is a preview of the Knicks upcoming 2011-2012 NBA season, summing up what the team has done in the shortened offseason, what to watch out for during the season, and what the Knicks need to do to be successful, as well as best and worst case scenarios for the team.
Free Agency Frenzy
The New York Knicks’ two main concerns coming into this offseason were center and point guard. To the best of their ability, the team did a fantastic job filling out those positions. The Knicks not only got a center but also in doing so became a much better defensive team. Getting Tyson Chandler may have been the signing of the offseason because in doing so the Knicks are able to move Amar’e Stoudemire to his natural power forward position which means Stoudemire does not have to bang bodies down low with the biggest guy on the opposing team, which should help keep his back healthy. In addition, Chandler gives the Knicks a defensive presence that they have not had since Patrick Ewing patrolled the paint. Adding one of the best defensive players in the league to the center position takes pressure off of the perimeter defenders because now there is help underneath if an opposing guard tries to penetrate. Chandler’s large length and even larger wingspan not only brings shot blocks but also causes opponents to change their shot in order to avoid getting blocked. He will also create a lot of second chance opportunities on the offensive glass. Chandler was an integral member of the Dallas Mavericks’ 2011 championship season. The combination of Carmelo Anthony, Amar’e Stoudemire, and Tyson Chandler gives the Knicks the best frontcourt in the NBA. With the presence of Chandler and new assistant coach Mike Woodson, who ran the defense on the 2004 Detroit Pistons championship team as an assistant, the Knicks’ 28th ranked defense last season should improve dramatically.
Signing Chandler meant that the Knicks had to amnesty Chauncey Billups and his big contract. Even if it had to be done, releasing a playmaker with not only a championship ring but also a Finals MVP under his belt always leaves big shoes to fill. Although there were no big time free agent point guards available and nowhere near the necessary trade pieces on the team to acquire Chris Paul from the Hornets, the signings made by the Knicks organization of veterans Mike Bibby and Baron Davis were great moves at a low-risk price. Baron Davis may be out right now with a back problem but if he can come back healthy and in shape he can bring confidence to the Knicks at the point guard position. Although Davis has been a shoot first point guard in the past he has the ability to play-make for the Knicks’ go to scorers. Bibby lets the Knicks spread the floor as a three-point shooter if he can get that long range shot back on track. Toney Douglas is a solid on ball defender who can shoot the three, but to rely on him as the playmaking point guard for a team with championship aspirations is not realistic.
The Rookies
Knicks’ rookies Iman Shumpert and Josh Harrelson will have the ability to work their way into the Knicks rotation this season. I still believe that Shumpert was drafted too early but he has certainly demonstrated that not only does his have the ability to defend on the perimeter but also he is a very good shooter, as seen in the two Knicks’ preseason games against the New Jersey Nets.
Josh Harrelson, the big guy out of Kentucky, can make a name for himself with hustle plays, defense, and rebounding, which he did display in the preseason. If Harrelson can become a buckle down, low post defender then he can become Chandler’s backup at center and help out on the defensive side to give Chandler a rest or when Chandler gets into foul trouble. Harrelson also, very surprisingly, showed the ability to step out and drain an open three pointer which will pull the opposing center away from the basket, giving more room for Amar’e and ‘Melo underneath.
The 2-Man
Landry Fields, the starting two-guard, has to repeat the first half of the season he had last year, pre-‘Melo trade. The first half of last season saw Fields make a convincing run as potential Rookie of the Year. Then Anthony was traded to the Knicks and Fields disappeared. Fields needs to get back to his former self and be the clean up guy around the rim who can also hit the open, mid-range shot. The backcourt may be a little spotty this season so Fields has to make sure that he can step up when he is called upon.
Toney Douglas is probably going to start at point guard but unfortunately he is more of an undersized two guard. If Baron Davis can come back healthy or Mike Bibby can show shades of his former self and properly dish the ball out then Douglas can back up both guard positions and has ability to do it well. He can guard either position and hit the three pointer so, as a backup to both point guard and shooting guard, Douglas can be successful. Playing Douglas alongside Mike Bibby who can create on offense means that Douglas can play defense against the tougher opposing guard, a trait not seen often in Bibby.
The Point Forward
Considering Davis is out for a number of weeks and Bibby’s age and Douglas’s ability are in question, playmaking may fall on Carmelo Anthony as a point forward. This could make Knicks games very interesting to watch. ‘Melo has shown great vision in the preseason games and having him run the point could help open up the floor for the other players as long as ‘Melo becomes a willing passer. He does not have to become a traditional past-first point guard, but if he is going to handle the ball in the half court for the Knicks, he is going to have to pass up the opportunities he typically likes to shoot, sans ball movement. Based on the two preseason games, Anthony’s prospects as a point-forward look very promising so long as he plays that role sparingly.
The Bench
By far the weakest link on this Knicks team is depth. Outside of Amar’e and ‘Melo there are not very many scoring options available. If the Knicks want to make a deep run in the playoffs, the backups are going to have to come in and be able to hold down the fort. If Toney Douglas can move to backup and he and Bibby can show promise as shooters that should help the backcourt as well as Shumpert if he can continue to hit the midrange and three point shots. However, the true problem lies at the forward position.
Renaldo Balkman was the surprise of the preseason for the Knicks, hustling on both ends of the court and demonstrating an ability to finish, but it is truly questionable if that can last. If Balkman wants that small forward spot behind ‘Melo, he is going to have to continue to be a guy that can continuously finish at the rim the way he did in the preseason. If Amar'e gets into foul trouble then the Knicks lose all interior presence on the offensive end. As great as Chandler is on defense and around the boards, the Knicks cannot rely on him to be a scorer in the post. The other two big men on the bench, rookie Harrelson and Jared Jeffries, are as far from scorers as you can get. Amar’e and ‘Melo both need to stay healthy and out of foul trouble because points off the bench and at other spots in the starting lineup are not going to be so easy to find.
Best Case Scenario
Stoudemire’s back holds up all season and he and ‘Melo take advantage of a training camp together, albeit a short one, to get used to one another on the court. Douglas and Anthony share point guard responsibility for the first month and a half of the season and both show the ability to create for others. A healthy and ready-to-go Baron Davis then returns to take over the role of starting point guard and becomes that third scoring option for the Knicks, realizing that he needs to defer to Amar’e and ‘Melo but takes advantage of those times that he needs to make a big shot, and those time will definitely come. Chandler’s performance on the defensive end puts him into the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year and his defensive prowess is contagious, encouraging everyone else on the floor to focus on the defensive end as well. Fields and Shumpert both become midrange shooting threats who have motors that never stop running and Harrelson, with the help of Chandler, learns quickly how to guard bigger centers and becomes a viable backup. The Knicks end up with a top four seed in the Eastern Conference, giving them home court advantage in the first round, and end up falling in the Eastern Conference Finals (A Finals appearance may seem possible but is farfetched, although I would much rather have them make it to the Finals and admit I was wrong in thinking they would not be able to).
Worst Case Scenario
The grueling, condensed NBA schedule comes back to haunt the Knicks. Stoudemire continues to ache because having to play back-to-back-to-back games and four games in five nights does not give him time to rest. The shortened training camp means lost time that Stoudemire and ‘Melo could have been working together and they come out still not on the same page, both wanting to have the ball in their hands at all times. Douglas starts at point guard but his vision of the passing lanes is spotty at best and he cannot create for anyone else. ‘Melo, in an attempt to become a point-forward, realizes that he would much rather have the ball in his hands than someone else’s so decides not to look to pass. The hopes of Davis coming back to run the point are squandered when he steps on the court for all to see that he is so out of shape from sitting around injured that he can barely make it up and down the court, but he does have the strength to take shots away from Stoudemire and Anthony, aggravating the both of them. Chandler plays well on defense but regularly gets into foul trouble as he tries to make up for the mistakes committed by everyone else on the defensive end. Fields’s slump carries over from last season and he becomes hesitant to even look at the rim when the ball is in his hands, let alone shoot, while Shumpert becomes too arrogant of a shooter that there is a fear he is going to jack up a shot every time he touches the ball. Harrelson proves to be too small and unskilled to rebound and play defense at the professional level. The Knicks still make the playoffs as a 6, 7, or 8 seed and get bounced out of the first round again, lucky to win two playoff games.
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