The Jeremy Lin Decision

Passing on Lin

I wanted to wait until it was official that the New York Knicks would not match the Houston Rocket’s offer and therefore pass on re-signing Jeremy Lin before I wrote an article about it, I don’t like counting my chickens before they hatch. For the first time since I can remember, the Knicks’ front office, and specifically I mean owner James Dolan, did not bend to marketing pressure and finally made a smart basketball decision. Yes, the Knicks technically have people employed at General Manager, Glen Grunwald, and Head Coach, Mike Woodson, but for a long time Dolan has called all of the shots, regardless of what everyone else has said, especially when it comes to bringing in
more marketing money through ticket sales, jersey sales, etc. As recently as two years ago Dolan overruled former GM, and salary cap savior, Donnie Walsh as well as former Head Coach Mike D’Antoni and decided to trade for Carmelo Anthony right before the trade deadline in exchange for four starters instead of waiting to sign Anthony during that offseason, even to the dismay of the two previously mentioned men. What that led to was a complete uprooting of the Knicks’ team but gave Anthony an extra half season in New York leading to more national attention for the organization. After all, Carmelo Anthony probably brings in more attention/money than Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, and Timofey Mozgov (the starters traded for ’Melo) combined.

So the idea of an Asian-American underdog point guard from Harvard who probably had the most exciting 35 games in the history of the NBA seemed like a marketing dream come true for Dolan. Linsanity swept across the league, and the world for that matter, like the plague. So when Jeremy Lin signed an offer sheet with the Houston Rockets for three years and about $25 million I was afraid Dolan would not even hesitate to match it. My fears came true when someone within the organization said that the Knicks would match any contract for Lin up to $1 billion. At this point all that ran through my mind was the Knicks of the mid-2000s, the days when Isiah Thomas was pulling the strings and players like Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, Eddy Curry, Zach Randolph, and Jerome James were making an absurd amount of money while producing an embarrassingly low number of wins.

The Poison Pill

Lin’s new contract gives him $5 million the first year, $5.225 million the second year, and $14.8 million the third and final year. Known as a “poison pill” contract because the team who signs it has a tough pill to swallow giving a contract with that much salary discrepancy, causing problems in that final year. Signing Lin would mean the Knicks could pay $43 million in luxury taxes on behalf of the final year of that contract, and then there is his salary to pay as well.

Now I understand that we are talking about James Dolan and that money essentially is a non-issue when it comes to him. But isn’t it about time the Knicks stopped overpaying for players and getting little results from it? Seriously, paying that much money for a player who had his 15 seconds of fame but never showed what he could do with both Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire on the court. It is one thing paying that much for a player like Steve Nash, whose two MVP awards speak for themselves. However, for a player who played less than half a season with the Knicks, began to falter once he became the focus of an opponent’s video sessions, can’t dribble the ball with his left hand, can’t play defense, and is extremely turnover prone, the contract he was given is a lot.

A big misconception that seems to be going around is that even if the Knicks sign Lin and pay the luxury tax, he is essentially going to pay for himself in ticket purchases and merchandizing. After listening to the interviews of a number of businessmen within the NBA it is clear that that is definitely not the case. First of all, the Knicks essentially sell out Madison Square Garden on a nightly basis so ticket sales could not increase that much. Next comes the merchandising sales. Lin jerseys and Linsanity shirts flew off the shelves during the second half of the season. However, not all profits made on Lin merchandise goes to the Knicks. The team only makes all of the profits on merchandising if items are bought inside of The Garden. The profits of all other sales made outside of the arena is split among the NBA teams. Considering all of these points, there is no way the Knicks will get their money back on the Lin contract.

Calling His Bluff

If Lin really wanted to stay in New York he would have talked to the Knicks before jumping to sign an offer sheet with the Rockets. Lin assumed the Knicks would match any offer he was given so he tried to put the squeeze on the team that he broke out with. I want to make it clear that I have no problem with Lin trying to get as much money as he can get, but I disagree with the way he went about doing it. If he did not want to go to another team then he should not have signed an offer sheet with another team until he know how much the Knicks would be willing to offer.

The Knicks also called the bluff of the Houston Rockets. Like Lin, the Rockets assumed the Knicks would match any offer put in front of them, so they concocted a contract that would hurt the Knicks financially as much as it could. Now the Rockets are stuck paying that contract and even though they will not have to pay nearly as much luxury tax as the Knicks would have to pay, it is still a lot of money to pay a man in the final year of his contract.

The Return of Raymond

The Knicks brought Raymond Felton back in a sign-and-trade and essentially brought an end to the idea that the team would retain Lin. Felton did not have such a great season this past year with the Portland Trailblazers, but he did thrive in the Knicks system in 2010 before he was traded to Denver in the ’Melo deal. Now I understand that a knock on Felton is that he succeeded in D’Antoni’s uptempo offensive system and D’Antoni is no longer there, but didn’t Lin triumph under that same system? Felton had one off year and the world thinks he can’t play anymore.

The bottom line is that the Knicks are trying to win right now and Felton gives the Knicks a better chance of that than Lin. Lin may be the box office hit, but Felton is a player from whom you know what you are going to get on a nightly basis: A consistent point guard who can handle the ball, run the pick and roll with Stoudemire, be able to find Anthony, and has a keen eye for getting assists. Even in a down season in Portland, Felton still averaged 6.5 assists per game. He did not shoot as well as he could have, but he is not coming to the Knicks to shoot. He is coming to the Knicks to set up STAT and ‘Melo. I am excited to see him back in a Knicks uniform.

I know that in a previous post, ‘New York is getting (L)insane,’ I endorsed Jeremy Lin and said that he is a player who has been proving people wrong all his life when it comes to his abilities on the basketball court, but he is not worth the contract he is about to get. In the years to come, the Knicks’ organization will see that they dodged a bullet on this one.