2011 NBA Draft Lottery

Past Mistakes

Let me start by saying that I am about to embark on eating my big plate of crow. In a past article that I posted just after the hectic NBA trade deadline, I was very critical of the Cleveland Cavaliers for sending Jamario Moon and Mo Williams to the Clippers for Baron Davis and a 1st round pick. Well, I was wrong. I figured that that pick would be at best a mid-lottery pick in a not so talented draft and the Cavs would have to absorb Davis’ sour contract and attitude. That wasn’t the case at all, however, as that Clippers pick, which had a 2.8% chance of winning that #1 pick, was the last pick announced and thus the Cavs got the first pick in the draft.

Much Needed #1

Considering what LeBron James put the Cavs through over the summer, was there any team more deserving of the #1 pick? Not only do they have #1, though, they also have #4. So what if scouts say this is a weak draft? A rebuilding team like the Cavs is certainly not thinking that and why should they? They have a chance to get two potential franchise players in a single draft. The city of Cleveland has gone through so much in the past year. With the sudden success of the Cleveland Indians, currently five games up in the AL Central, and with Cleveland Browns’ running back Peyton Hillis awarded the cover of Madden ’12 things seem to finally be turning around for Cleveland. After all, the night is darkest just before the dawn.

Options, Options, Options

Now that the Cavs have the #1 and #4 picks, the next step is deciding what to do with them. They have plenty of paths they can choose from. Obviously it is early and they have not really even begun pre-draft workouts, but that does not mean I can’t speculate. If they choose not to trade either pick then they can take advantage of a shortage in both point guards and big men, the two most important positions in the NBA. As we have been quickly learning, this is a becoming a point guard driven league. With rule changes and an influx in freakishly quick and athletic guards, it seems a team is going to have trouble winning if they cannot rely on their point guard.

In my opinion, here is the scenario I see most likely to happen. Use that top pick and select point guard Kyrie Irving. Very rarely is the #1 overall pick traded so, realistically that is not a possibility. Selecting Irving, however, is very possible. Irving was hurt for most of his season at Duke but there is no doubting that he is a quality point guard who can shoot and distribute as he runs the offense. Next comes #4 and they  can use this to get an international big man like Enes Kanter from Turkey, Jan Vesely from the Czech Republic, or Jonas Valanciunas from Lithuania. Honestly, do not know any of these players too well considering they are international and thus have not received that much exposure. All are versatile inside and out of the paint, as is what usually comes from international big men. From what I have seen though, I think Kanter would be the better pick here because he seems to have better offensive and rebounding skills than the other two.. Kanter may not drop below #3 in which case they have plenty of other big men options with the two other bigs mentioned. No matter which big man the Cavs pick at #4, the important thing is getting him and Irving playing together as much as possible in order to create a dangerous chemistry between the two on the court.

Blessing in Disguise

The Minnesota Timberwolves had the best chance of winning the NBA lottery. They had the worst record in the league and a 25% chance of getting that #1 pick. Only once in the past eight years has the team with the worst record won the lottery, so Wolves fans should not have had their hopes high. But not getting that top pick is not such a bad thing, especially for a team with the draft history of the Timberwolves. In 2009, Minnesota had four pick in the first round of the draft, including numbers five and six. Three of those picks went to drafting point guards. #5 was used to get Ricky Rubio, #6 was Jonny Flynn, and #18 was Ty Lawson. Rubio has yet to come over from Spain but GM David Kahn keeps trying to lure him, Flynn has not nearly become the kind of player a 6th overall pick should, and Lawson was traded to the Denver Nuggets on draft night and has a bright career ahead of him. In addition, the Wolves just signed Luke Ridnour, who has four years left on his contract. Being pressured into drafting another point guard with the number one overall pick is not something the Wolves need right now. Clearly there are some issues scouting guards in that organization and they do not need any more points on that team. Any hopes in Rubio coming to the U.S. to play in Minnesota will be squandered if he believes that he is going to have to vie for a starting spot with Irving.

Instead, look at it as a positive. The Wolves do not seem to be that far from putting the pieces together and using that number two pick to draft a high flying forward like Derrick Williams or a big man such as Enes Kanter can get them a step closer. Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, and Derrick Williams can make a lethal three-headed monster among the two forward positions. If a big man is what they are looking for, someone like Enes Kanter can play center and take a lot of pressure off of Love on the glass.

Another option is to trade the pick, which will be highly coveted because of the great potential of Derrick Williams who could have so easily gone #1 overall had another team won the lottery. A team like Charlotte, who has two 1st round picks, may be looking for a player to replace Stephen Jackson. Take a deep breath Wolves fans, things are not as bad as they seem.

With the 17th Pick...

I would not be a Knicks if I chose to ignore the draft possibilities of the team. The Knicks own the 17th overall pick in the draft. With that pick they should seriously consider taking forward Kenneth Faried out of Morehead State, the Division I all-time leader in rebounds. Faried is just the type of player the Knicks need. With Stoudemire and Anthony there will not be many shots available and Faried is not one to look for points. Rather, he is an all out hustle player who can clean up the boards on both ends of the court. The Knicks got hurt during the 1st round of the playoffs a lot because the Celtics got so many second chance opportunities, Faried is the man who can limit those opportunities. Rebounding is one of the few categories that so easily translates to the NBA because it requires a high basketball IQ and hustle and who better to take than the all-time leading rebounder in Division I history? Kenneth Faried can bring a form of hustle and energy on the glass on both offense and defense that the Knicks lost when David Lee was traded away.

In addition, if Chris Singleton out of Florida State drops to 17 that could be a high quality pick. For a team desperate for defensive minded players, Singleton fills that void. He was one of the best, if not THE best, perimeter defenders in college basketball last year and can take a lot of pressure off of Carmelo Anthony on the defensive end because ’Melo will not be forced to guard the opposing teams best perimeter player. A lot of energy was lost when Anthony had to D-up against the likes of Paul Pierce and LeBron James. Having Singleton could save Anthony for the offensive end.

Jimmer Fredette may also be an interesting pick here. There is no question Jimmer can score either with his ridiculous long range accuracy or by putting the ball on the floor. Having a 3-point threat like Jimmer would make Coach D’Antoni very happy and bringing him off the bench would give a huge boost to the second unit. He may even be able to handle the point if Chauncey Billups needs a rest considering the Knicks need to a backup. The only problem is would he clash with Anthony in terms of shot distribution? Jimmer has said he would like to play in New York, but can he accept a role that does not require him to have the ball in his hands the whole game?