2011 NBA Draft Lottery

Past Mistakes

Let me start by saying that I am about to embark on eating my big plate of crow. In a past article that I posted just after the hectic NBA trade deadline, I was very critical of the Cleveland Cavaliers for sending Jamario Moon and Mo Williams to the Clippers for Baron Davis and a 1st round pick. Well, I was wrong. I figured that that pick would be at best a mid-lottery pick in a not so talented draft and the Cavs would have to absorb Davis’ sour contract and attitude. That wasn’t the case at all, however, as that Clippers pick, which had a 2.8% chance of winning that #1 pick, was the last pick announced and thus the Cavs got the first pick in the draft.

NBA Draft Lottery System

The Lottery

Since the NBA Draft Lottery was last week and the Nets (worst team) got the #3 pick, the T-Wolves (2nd worst team) got the #4 pick, and the Kings (3rd worst team) got the #5 pick, the argument has opened once again about whether or not to get rid of the lottery completely. As it is now, the NBA Draft Lottery works as follows: It is essentially for the top 3 picks in the draft involving the non-playoff teams. Each team has a certain percentage of winning each of the top 3 picks. The worse your record, the better your chances (the worst record has a 25% chance of getting the #1 pick). The first 3 picks are randomly drawn and picks 4-14 are in descending order of record based on the teams remaining. For example: New Jersey had the worst record in the NBA this year. This means that they can do no worse than #4 because if they don’t get top 3, they have the worst record out of the teams remaining. Conversely, the Houston Rockets, who had the best record out of the non-playoff teams, either get a top 3 pick or the #14 pick, nothing in between,