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Tuesday, October 29, 2013

2013-2014 NBA Preview: Atlantic Division


Boston Celtics
2012-2013 Record: 41-40 (7th in East)
Key Additions: Kelly Olynyk, MarShon Brooks, Kris Humphries, Gerald Wallace
Key Losses: Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Jason Terry
Projected Starting Lineup: Rajon Rondo, Courtney Lee, Gerald Wallace, Brandon Bass, Vitor Faverani

The Celtics have gone head first into rebuilding mode, the team has been almost completely stripped down and sold for parts. Future Hall of Famers Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett were traded within the division to the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for mostly expiring contracts and draft picks. Coach Doc Rivers
was traded to the Los Angeles Clippers and replaced by the young Brad Stevens from Butler University.

The first of two big questions facing this team is ‘Will Rajon Rondo be part of the team’s future?’ Rondo is the only piece left from the Celtics’ 2008 championship team. Now that the Celtics plan to completely embrace the rebuilding process, the future of the 27 year old former All-Star point guard is in question. There is no doubt the Celtics could send him to a point guard-needy team for multiple draft picks. But will Boston trade Rondo or try and hold on to him for the future?

The second question is ‘Will Brad Stevens be as successful coaching in the NBA as he was in college?’ The youngest coach in the league this season, Stevens is 37 years old, enters his first NBA job after shockingly leading an underdog Butler team to back-to-back NCAA Finals appearances in 2010 and 2011, losing to Duke and UConn, respectively. Stevens quickly became one of the most respected and sought after coaches in the country and in July signed a contract to become the Celtics new head coach, just three years after signing an extension with Butler that would have gone through the 2021-2022 season. Stevens will not be expected to even keep this team competitive this season given that outside of just a couple of players, the Celtics will have a completely different team in just a few seasons.

The Celtics will have to wait out some bad contracts they received from the Nets, i.e. Kris Humphries (one year, $12 million) and Gerald Wallace (three years, $30 million). Whether or not Rondo, who is coming off of knee surgery, remains on this team will have little effect on if the Celtics make the lottery. The Celtics more than likely will not make the playoffs in the next few years but that is what they will prefer as long as they get the high draft picks to go along with it. With the much anticipated 2014 draft coming up after this season, maybe the Celtics will use Rondo to try and get an extra 1st round pick.

Brooklyn Nets
2012-2013 Record: 49-33 (4th in East)
Key Additions: Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Andrei Kirilenko, Mason Plumlee, Jason Terry
Key Losses: MarShon Brooks, Kris Humpries, Gerald Wallace, C.J. Watson
Projected Starting Lineup: Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Brook Lopez

Like the San Antonio Spurs, the regular season of the Brooklyn Nets will mean very little. The goal of this team is not to finish with the best record in the league but rather to still be playing in June. In a very crowded Eastern Conference, the Nets stand out boasting a starting lineup chock full of All-Stars. New additions Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, both future Hall of Famers, won a championship together in 2008 with the Boston Celtics. These guys know how to win and what it takes to lift the Finals trophy and they are joined by Deron Williams, who is one of the best all-around point guards in the league who does not get the credit he deserves, shooter Joe Johnson, and big man Brook Lopez.

However, what may send this team to the Finals this year is their bench. The bench, which is one of the most talented in the league, will be tasked with making sure the aging Pierce, 36, and Garnett, 37, are well rested come playoff time. If all goes well, both with average less than 30 minutes per game this season, which means they will be healthy and ready to go for the postseason. The men tasked with relieving Pierce and Garnett includes Jason Terry, a former 6th Man of the Year winner who came over from Boston with Pierce and Garnett, Andrei Kirilenko, a defensive specialist that can guard almost anyone in the league out on the perimeter, as well as Reggie Evans and Andray Blatche, who both should provide plenty of rebounding in the second unit.

As we learned last year with the Los Angeles Lakers, a great starting lineup on paper does not necessarily translate to success on the court. The Nets have the right bench to keep their stars well rested for the playoffs. They took the biggest leap of any team this season, going from first round playoff exit to realistic championship hopefuls. We will really see what this team is made of if they face the Miami Heat in the postseason.

New York Knicks
2012-2013 Record: 54-28 (2nd in East)
Key Additions: Andrea Bargnani, Metta World Peace, Tim Hardaway Jr., Beno Udrih
Key Losses: Chris Copeland, Steve Novak
Projected Starting Lineup: Raymond Felton, Iman Shumpert, Carmelo Anthony, Andrea Bargnani, Tyson Chandler

James Dolan spent $1 billion over the last three years completely renovating Madison Square Garden. In July the New York City Council announced plans to renovate Penn Station, located right below the World’s Most Famous Arena, and that MSG has 10 years to relocate. Therein lies the perfect example of the Knicks under James Dolan; a lot of wasteful spending. That procedure, which is becoming more of a rule than guideline, was driven home even further when the Knicks gave J.R. Smith a three year, $17 million contract in July after a regular season where he won the NBA’s 6th Man of the Year award, but absolutely bombed in the postseason. Shortly after signing his shiny new contract, Smith underwent knee surgery that nobody seemed to know he needed and it is now believed Smith waited to announce his need for surgery until he signed his new contract. Shortly after that, Smith was suspended the first 5 games of the regular season for violating the league’s drug policy. Money well spent?

There are new names on the Knicks who need to step up in order for the team to make it to the Conference Finals this year. Andrea Bargnani, the former number one overall pick, may have just needed a change of scenery to revamp his game, at least that is what the Knicks are hoping. Bargnani did not play well in Toronto ever since Chris Bosh left. Bargnani is no longer going to be relied on has the number one scorer on his team, which means there is less pressure on him to perform. His ability to knock down threes is impressive but what is great about his game is he is a surprisingly good dribbler. The combination of his outside shooting and dribbling skills makes his pump fake dupe defenders to jumping sky high. Metta World Peace, who has championship experience with the Lakers, returns home to New York and brings hard nosed defense to a team that sometimes forgets to play defense. However, perhaps my favorite addition this season for the Knicks is reserve guard Toure’ Murry out of Wichita State. Murray spent last year in the D-League and led the Rio Grande Valley Vipers to the championship. For a Knicks team that already has plenty of players at both guard positions, Murry was in a tough spot trying to make a team that was looking to add big men. He showed a defensive tenacity during the Summer League and preseason games that reminded me of a young Iman Shumpert. Murry may not get much playing time, but has definitely earned a spot on this roster. If he does play, he will wreak havoc on the defensive end, much like Shumpert, Prigioni, and World Peace.

The Heat kept their Big 3 together while Indiana, Chicago, and Brooklyn all got better. The Knicks did not make any such leaps. The Eastern Conference is flooded with great teams and the Knicks have their hands full even trying to get home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The advantage the Knicks have is that they can throw a lot of unconventional lineups at opposing teams. Coach Mike Woodson can have the tradition lineup that is projected to be their starting lineup; he can play small with two point guards on the court or Anthony at the power forward position (both of which they did plenty of last season); he can put Bargnani in as the center to help stretch the floor; he can put in a defensive-heavy lineup with Prigioni, Shumpert, World Peace, and Tyson Chandler on the floor. There are plenty of options for Woodson to choose from. The one common denominator in all the lineups with be Anthony. ‘Melo has already announced his intentions to test the free agency waters next season, which means this could be his last in New York. This team is built around Anthony, the pressure is on him to not only be the scorer but create as well and get this team to at least the Conference Finals.

Philadelphia 76ers
2012-2013 Record: 34-48 (9th in East)
Key Additions: Nerlens Noel, Michael Carter-Williams, Tony Wroten
Key Losses: Andrew Bynum, Jrue Holliday, Dorell Wright, Nick Young
Projected Starting Lineup: Michael Carter-Williams, Jason Richardson, Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young, Spencer Hawes

The Sixers traded away Jrue Holliday, their budding All-Star point guard, and thus began their own rebuilding process. In exchange, Philadelphia got Nerlens Noel who for much of the time leading up to the draft was projected to go number one. His knee injury, however, may have turned teams off to him and he dropped to sixth. Now the Sixers plan to sit Noel the whole season to “rest his knee” which is code for “tank the season to try and get Andrew Wiggens in the draft.” The Sixers not only have their own pick in the much anticipated 2014 NBA draft, but also receive the Pelicans’ first round pick in the draft as part of the trade that sent them Noel.

There is not much to say about the 76ers this season. We do not expect much from them because they hope not to expect much from themselves. Rookie point guard Michael Carter-Williams has some work to do if he is going to become the team’s franchise point guard. Carter-Williams has the vision and basketball IQ to be an NBA point guard, but he needs to desperately work on his shooting game after hitting less than 30% from the field last season for Syracuse. Carter-Williams does not have the quickness to be a true threat driving to the rim, which means he needs to threaten defenders with his shot. He did average 7.3 assists in his final season with the Orange, but those assists will be hard to come by if defenders can play off of him and dare him to shoot.

Toronto Raptors
2012-2013 Record: 34-48 (10th in East)
Key Additions: D.J. Augustin, Steve Novak, Tyler Hansbrough, Austin Daye
Key Losses: Andrea Bargnani
Projected Starting Lineup: Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gay, Amir Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas

The most athletic team in the National Basketball Association may not be in the United States, but Canada. The Raptors have been quietly stocking up on talent north of the border with Rudy Gay, DeMar DeRozan, Terrence Ross, and Amir Johnson all capable of jumping out of the gym. They are also solid scorers and defenders. Watching them player is no doubt entertaining, but can the combination of all of them lead to wins in Toronto?

Kyle Lowry and D.J. Augustin make up a talented but undersized point guard tandem that may have trouble guarding opposing guards. However, the key to Toronto may be the faith they put in yet another foreign big man. Italian center Andrea Bargnani did not work out well for Toronto and now the Raptors turn to Jonas Valanciunas of Lithuana who was drafted two years ago. Valanciunas started most of the games he played in last season for the Raptors, but still only averaged 23.9 minutes per game. Valanciunas needs to control the paint for a team that has plenty of players who will shoot and therefore, plenty of offensive rebound opportunities. The success of Toronto and its young athletic players will be based heavily on whether or not this foreign big man can handle the work load of a the team will try to build around.

The Eastern Conference is very top heavy this year and with a number of teams looking to tank in order to get high draft picks next year, the Raptors may be able to sneak into the playoffs.

Prediction
1) Brooklyn Nets
2) New York Knicks
3) Toronto Raptors
4) Boston Celtics
5) Philadelphia 76ers

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