2013-2014 NBA Preview: Northwest Division

Denver Nuggets

2012-2013 Record: 57-25 (3rd in West)

Key Additions: Nate Robinson, J.J. Hickson, Randy Foye, Darrell Arthur

Key Losses: Andre Iguodala, Corey Brewer, Kosta Koufas

Projected Starting Lineup: Ty Lawson, Randy Foye, Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried, JaVale McGee

The Nuggets did the unthinkable this offseason, and I am not talking about letting go of All-Star Andre Iguodala. On May 2, 2013 the Denver Nuggets, the 3rd seed in the West, lost Game 6 of their opening round matchup against the 6th seeded Golden State Warriors and were bounced from the 2013 playoffs. Six days later Nuggets coach George Karl earned his first ever NBA Coach of the Year award after a regular season that saw
him lead his team to a 57-25 regular season record. On June 6 George Karl was fired as coach of the Denver Nuggets following a season where the Nuggets finished with the fourth best record in the league. There are not many examples in history of a Coach of the Year winner in any sport getting fired that same year. Karl is replaced by Shaw, a top NBA assistant for years with the Los Angeles Lakers and Indiana Pacers who has been waiting for his first opportunity to be a head coach in the league.

Danilo Gallinari is expected to come back this season after tearing his ACL at the end of the regular season last year, but can he withstand more minutes on a recently repaired knee now that Iguodala is gone? Much of the scoring load falls on his shoulders. Galo, who has not averaged more than 20 points per game in a season so far in his young career, will be called upon to do so this year. There just are not many other scoring options available for the Nuggets. Galo will need to improve on his shooting percentage from inside the three point line if he wants Denver to land safely in the playoff conversation next season. He and point guard Ty Lawson will be expected to deal with most of the ball handling and creating. Galo and Lawson can both get to the rim and finish, but they will need to get their big men involved so that defenses stay honest.

The team really did not open up the wallet this season and instead signed some role players to come off the bench. The biggest additions were Nate Robinson, who will be third in the point guard pecking order behind Ty Lawson and Andre Miller, and J.J. Hickson, who quietly averaged a double-double, 12.7 points and 10.4 rebounds per game, for the Portland Trail Blazers last season. Hickson joins an athletic front court with big men Kenneth Faried and JaVale McGee. The biggest factor for the Nuggets this season is how McGee takes to being a starter, if he does indeed become a starter. McGee has always had attitude problems, starting back when he was drafted by the Wizards in 2008. He always seems to do what he wants instead of listening to his coaches. Rookie coach Shaw will have his hands full with McGee, but if he can get the center under control, McGee can become a weapon on both sides of the ball. His 2 blocks a game last season was good for ninth in the NBA last season, an even more impressive statistic given that everyone else in the top 17 were at least semi-regular starters. McGee should hover around the three blocks per game mark if he wants to help the Nuggets make the playoffs, but where he drastically needs to improve is his rebounding, where he averaged less than 5 per game last year.

The Nuggets without Andre Iguodala and George Karl have an uphill climb to even make the playoffs next year, let alone trying to match last year’s success. Danilo Gallinari and JaVale McGee need to heed the call.

Minnesota Timberwolves

2012-2013 Record: 31-51 (12th in West)

Key Additions: Kevin Martin, Corey Brewer, Shabazz Muhammad, Gorgui Dieng

Key Losses: Andrei Kirilenko, Luke Ridnour, Greg Steimsma

Projected Starting Lineup: Ricky Rubio, Kevin Martin, Corey Brewer, Kevin Love, Nikola Pekovic

It is go time in Minnesota. Kevin Love deserves better. He really does. He has been one of the few bright spots in years of poor front office decision making. His last two seasons have been marred by injury, but he has still been stuck in Minnesota waiting for a team to form around him. Love is a beast on the boards, averaging double digit boards in his last four seasons and double digit points every year of his five year career. If this season does not turn out the way it is expected, do not be surprised to see Love on the trading block (Maybe he gets sent to the Lakers in a trade involving Pau Gasol?).

The supporting cast is certainly present this season. Kevin Martin was a good sign for the Wolves. He and second year guard Alexey Shved should be able to shoot the lights out in Minnesota from three point range. Centers Nikola Pekovic, Ronny Turiaf, and rookie Gorgui Dieng should provide more than enough presence inside to help Love out on the boards. However, J.J. Barea, the backup point guard, needs to live up to the four year, $19 million contract he signed with the Timberwolves two years ago following an outstanding playoff performance with the Dallas Mavericks that culminated in a championship ring on his finger. Derrick Williams, the second overall pick in the 2011 draft, has not even played to the level of a first round pick in his first two seasons thus far. The undersized power forward needs to start using his explosiveness we saw he had at the University of Arizona to get to the rim and finish with power as well as shoot better from the outside. He just seems too timid out there on the court.

Whether or not Kevin Love wants to stay in Minnesota could fall to the feet of one player, point guard Ricky Rubio. Rubio, in his first two seasons, has played a combined 98 of a possible 162 games. His career shooting percentage is 35.9% from the field and 31.7% from deep, completely unacceptable for a guy who is supposed to be a franchise point guard. Sure, he is averaging 7.7 assists per game for his career, but once he starts playing with some regularity, defenders are going to start playing off him, forcing him to shoot and, ultimately, to miss. He has unbelievable vision and dribbling skills, but as the second best player on this team, Rubio needs to be a threat to score as well. Yes, Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo could not shoot when they first came into the league, but Rose was still good enough on offense to become the youngest player to win NBA MVP and Rondo had three future Hall of Famers to take up the scoring load (Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen). There are a number of players who the Timberwolves have been waiting for to finally play at the level they are expected to. Rubio needs to step up his game for the T-Wolves this season, the future of Kevin Love’s career could depend on it.

Oklahoma City Thunder

2012-2013 Record: 60-22 (1st in West)

Key Addition: Steven Adams, Ryan Gomes

Key Losses: Kevin Martin, Ronnie Brewer

Projected Starting Lineup: Russell Westbrook, Thabo Sefolosha, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins

Jeremy Lamb and Steven Adams. That is what the James Harden trade boils down to for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Kevin Martin spent a season with the Thunder, moving from Houston as part of that trade, but bolted after this season for a four year, $28 million contract in Minnesota. Now all that is left for the Thunder as part of that trade are Lamb and Adams, who the Thunder drafted #12 overall in this year’s draft, a pick they received from Houston that the Rockets had received from Toronto. The Thunder are waiting for Lamb to provide some production off of the bench after a very disappointing rookie season. The 12th overall pick in the 2012 NBA draft averaged a mere 6.4 minutes and 3.1 points coming off the bench for the Thunder. Adams, a native of New Zealand, did more than expected in his only year at Pittsburgh, averaging 7.2 points and 6.3 rebounds for the Panthers. However, he does not have much basketball experience overall, which is why his averages in college were so surprising. The Thunder are young, but they are in contention to win now. They need players to help support Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, Adams is not one of those players. He is going to need at least a couple of years to come into his own in the NBA.

Russell Westbrook, by getting injured, proved to everyone just how valuable he is to this Thunder team. Westbrook, ever since coming into the league in 2008, has gotten heat for taking shots away from Durant, arguably the best player in the NBA. Westbrook went down with a knee injury in the second game of the Thunder’s opening round playoff series against the Rockets. The Thunder went on to win in six games, but the best team in the West and reigning Western Conference champions at the time saw their title chances slip away with the loss of Westbrook, as evidenced by their getting eliminated from the playoffs in the very next round against the fifth seeded Memphis Grizzlies, who defeated the Thunder in five games. The loss of Westbrook, and no James Harden on the team, meant opposing defenses could surround Durant and not have to worry about other players scoring. Durant became the focal point for two, three, sometimes even four defenders. Westbrook may be taking shots away from Durant when they are on the floor, but he also takes defenders away from Durant as well.

Serge Ibaka is a fantastic defender who has added a midrange shot to his game but his range is still relatively limited. The bench is filled with unproven and underachieving players. All the attention for opposing defenses will be on Durant and Westbrook. That leaves open shots and opportunities for guys like Ibaka, rookies Adams and Andre Roberson as well as Lamb. Westbrook is coming back from injury, Harden is gone, Martin is gone, outside of Durant and Westbrook, who is going to hit shots from the outside?

Portland Trail Blazers

2012-2013 Record: 33-49 (11th in West)

Key Additions: Robin Lopez, C.J. McCollum, Thomas Robinson, Dorell Wright, Mo Williams

Key Losses: J.J. Hickson, Eric Maynor

Projected Starting Lineup: Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge, Robin Lopez

Greg Oden and Brandon Roy. Two potentially franchise altering players who started their careers with the Portland Trail Blazers and whose careers have been derailed by extremely serious knee injuries, taking years off from the NBA before trying to make comebacks with other teams, Roy last year with the Timberwolves did not end up working out and Oden this year with the Heat. Somehow, however, the Blazers have always seemed to do alright and will have a good roster to make a run for the playoffs this year. Last year’s Rookie of the Year, Damian Lillard, will eventually be joined in the backcourt by rookie C.J. McCollum, an excellent scorer from inside and out. McCollum can play both guard positions, he is expected to back up both starting guards Lillard and Wesley Matthews. McCollum, who is out with a foot injury that also saw him miss all of his senior year last season at Lehigh, is making Trail Blazer fans nervous that the team made another draft pick with injury issues. Lillard had a great rookie season with 19 points and 6.5 assists along with very good shooting percentages for a rookie, 42.9% overall and 36.8% from deep. If McCollum can stay healthy, the tandem of Lillard and McCollum, who, like Lillard was last year, is a dark horse to win Rookie of the Year honors this year, can give Blazer fans a reason to forget about Oden and Roy.

Lillard’s pick-and-role partner, LaMarcus Aldridge, was reported to be on the move throughout the season. Aldridge apparently was not happy in Portland, but the Trail Blazers should thank their lucky stars that he is still there. Finding chemistry between Lillard and Aldridge is going to be key for this team’s success. Lillard, who practiced the pick-and-role all throughout his college career at Weber State, is one of few young players who can run it at the NBA level. Lillard and Aldridge are going to be a fun guard-forward combination to watch while they are playing in Portland.

There were no big names to sign with Portland this offseason, but that does not mean they did not do a good job in free agency. Portland quietly had a very solid offseason, adding a starting veteran center (Robin Lopez), backup veteran point guard (Mo Williams), and three point shooter (Dorell Wright). In addition, I still have high hopes for Thomas Robinson, who in just one year in the NBA has already been on three different teams.

Every player in the starting lineup for the Blazers, and a couple on the bench, are capable of averaging double digit points this season. Aldridge is the bona fide star on this team, but everyone else is capable more than holding their own. Nicolas Batum is one of the most underrated players in the league and if he can stay healthy (another injury prone player in Portland), he who can put up quality numbers in every part of the stats sheet. Look for them to improve on their poor record from last season.

Utah Jazz

2012-2013 Record: 43-39 (9th in West)

Key Additions: Trey Burke, John Lucas III, Andris Biedrins, Richard Jefferson

Key Losses: Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Mo Williams, Jamaal Tinsley, Randy Foye

Projected Starting Lineup: John Lucas III, Gordon Hayward, Richard Jefferson, Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter

All the eggs are in the Derrick Favors basket in Utah. The bulk of their frontcourt is gone, Al Jefferson signed with Charlotte and Paul Millsap with Atlanta. Favors signed a four year, $49 million contract extension, a lot of money for a player who had his best statistical season last year with averages of of 9.4 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. Favors probably will not live up to that big contract, but the Jazz felt that they needed to start building somewhere.

The biggest job of the Jazz this season should be getting rookie and former NCAA Player of the Year winner Trey Burke and former third overall pick Enes Kanter as well adjusted to the NBA as possible. Kanter is entering his third season in the NBA but has yet to play any kind of significant minutes. Burke, whose only real knock is that he is too small for the NBA, is going to disprove those doubters. He is an incredibly talented point guard capable of not only creating shots for teammates, but creating his own shot as well when it is necessary. He has big shot-makability and a quickness that will see him get to the rim, but because of his size he is going to need time to adjust. Bigger guards will try to push him around while defending him and back him down on the block on the other end of the court.

There is not much to this Jazz team. They were on the brink of the playoffs last season, but will the losses of Jefferson and Millsap, they will be safely in the lottery in next year’s draft, maybe something the Jazz will live with given that the 2014 draft is projected to be the most talented in a decade. Favors, Burke, and Kanter are all very young. They will go through years together of sub-.500 ball but the record will not matter much for this team in the next couple of years. A big question going forward is, with Gordon Hayward coming up on the end of his contract, do the Jazz sign him to extension like Favors, do they trade him this season, or do they let him walk?

Prediciton:

1) Oklahoma City Thunder

2) Portland Trail Blazers

3) Minnesota Timberwolves

4) Denver Nuggets

5) Utah Jazz