2013-2014 NBA Preview: Pacific Division

Golden State Warriors

2012-2013 Record: 47-35 (6th in West)

Key Additions: Andre Iguodala, Toney Douglas, Jermaine O’Neal

Key Losses: Jarrett Jack, Carl Landry

Projected Starting Lineup: Stephen Curry, Klay Thomspon, Andre Iguodala, David Lee, Andrew Bogut

If everyone can stay healthy, a tough order to fill for injury prone center and former number one overall pick Andrew Bogut, the Warriors can sport one of the best starting lineups in the league this year. The addition of Andre Iguodala takes this team to potential conference finalist, a label they almost fulfilled last year in a surprising run to the second round of the playoffs. ‘Dala, a very underrated defender, comes in with a defensive presence that
will help this team improve on its 100.3 points per game allowed (19th in the NBA) last season. He will be able to guard the opposing team’s best player and should not be a burden on the offensive end, he averaged 10 points and 5.4 assists a game last season with the Denver Nuggets. Iguodala also takes some pressure off of second year man Harrison Barnes, who will likely become the 6th man on the team and be able to learn a great deal from Iguodala. Barnes did not really come into his own until playoff time during his rookie year, but the ability to bring such a talent off of the bench for the Warriors speaks volumes about their starting lineup. The losses of Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry will hurt more than expected though. Both were seasoned veterans coming off the bench with better stats than you would expect: Jack averaged 12.9 points, 5.6 assists, 3.1 rebounds per game and Landry with 10.8 points and 6 rebounds, both coming off the bench.

When Steph Curry has the ball, you watch. Plain and simple. Curry is not trigger shy when he is playing point guard but from what we have seen from him so far, there is no reason he should be. Curry, who made an astounding 45% of his 600 three point attempts last season, proved to everyone that he is within shooting range as soon as he steps off of the team bus, as evidenced by his 54 point performance against the New York Knicks in Madison Square Garden. He went 11 for 13 from three point range that game and finished with 7 assists as well. Curry showed last year that he can also get to the rim at will and finish with either hand or set up his teammates. He needs to improve on his 45% overall shooting from the field but if Curry is even a shell of what he was last year, the Warriors are in good shape.

Bogut and Lee sure up a very good rebounding front line. The biggest question outside of whether or not Bogut can stay healthy, he missed 50 games last season, is if third year shooting guard Klay Thompson can continue to improve. Thompson hit some big shots in the playoffs last year and Curry is going to continue to draw double and triple teams. Thompson needs to keep hitting the open shots he will be getting.

Los Angeles Clippers

2012-2013 Record: 56-26 (4th in West)

Key Additions: J.J. Redick, Jared Dudley, Darren Collison, Reggie Bullock, Byron Mullens, Doc Rivers (coach)

Key Losses: Chauncey Billups, Eric Bledsoe, Caron Butler, Lamar Odom, Ronny Turiaf

Projected Starting Lineup: Chris Paul, J.J. Redick, Jared Dudley, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan

  Thanks to the presence of Chris Paul in Los Angeles, backup point guard Eric Bledsoe became expendable. The Clippers did a great job flipping Bledsoe in a three team trade that landed them two proficient three point shooters to fill out the remainder of their starting lineup in J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley. These two help keep the paint clear for pick and roles between Paul and Griffin/Jordan which should lead to more lobs in Lob City. Now, when the point guard and his big men run the play, help defenders from the perimeter guarding Redick and Dudley need to be wary of how much they help out in the middle on the role from the big men. Step in too much to help out on defense and Paul can hit one of two shooters who each shot above 43% from deep last season. If the defender decides to stay with his man and prevent the three pointer then Paul should be able to throw a high toss to one of his two big men for an easy, thunderous dunk that helped give the team its new nickname. Add rookie Reggie Bullock from North Carolina to that mix and that is three high quality shooters roaming the outside and keeping defenders honest.

The Clippers even did a great job replacing Bledsoe by signing free agent Darren Collison as a backup to Paul. Collison is very talented, in his four years in the league he’s averaged over 10 points and about 5 assists a game each year. Bringing Collison and Jamal Crawford off the bench is a big advantage for the Clippers. The Clipper backups in the backcourt could easily be the starting backcourt on any number of other teams in the NBA.

The issues for the Clippers come when the second unit of the frontcourt steps in.   Ryan Hollins, Byron Mullens, and Matt Barnes are projected to be in that second unit and the problem is that there is very little scoring between the three of them. All the offensive firepower expected to be brought by the backcourt’s second unit is the complete opposite of what is to be expected out of the backups in the frontcourt. Hollins averaged 3.4 PPG last year and 4.0 for his career, Barnes averaged about 10 last season but whatever points the defensive specialist scores is really found money for the Clippers, especially when he went off for a couple of 30 point games in the playoffs, and Mullens averaged a career high 10.6 PPG for a Bobcats team last season where someone needed to take shots (he shot an abysmal 38.5% from the field). The starting lineup is top notch, but the success of this team could be reliant on what happens when Griffin and/or Jordan get into foul trouble.

Doc Rivers, coming into his first season as coach of the Clippers, is someone who can manage this team to reach where the bar has been set. Rivers coached his fair share of superstars in Boston and brings championship experience to a Clippers organization that has had little success even making the playoffs in its long history.

Los Angeles Lakers

2012-2013 Record: 45-37 (7th in West)

Key Additions: Chris Kaman, Nick Young, Xavier Henry, Wesley Johnson, Jordan Farmar, Ryan Kelly

Key Losses: Dwight Howard, Metta World Peace, Chris Duhon, Antawn Jamison, Andrew Goudelock

Projected Starting Lineup: Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Nick Young, Pau Gasol, Chris Kaman

In Game 1 of last year’s opening round playoff series between the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs, Lakers guard Jodie Meeks went down with an ankle injury and if you did not know any better, you would have thought the sky was falling along with any chances the Lakers had of winning the championship. Lakers media and fans were talking about the end of the series after one game because a player who has only averaged double digit points per game once in his four years in the NBA got hurt and was unlikely to return for the rest of the series (he did not and the Lakers were swept in 4 games).

That is how desperate the fans and how injury depleted the Lakers had become by the start of the playoffs. Kobe Bryant? Out with a torn achilles suffered towards the end of the regular season, an injury that could threaten an opening day return this season. Steve Nash? Struggling through an ankle injury all season, same as Dwight Howard with his shoulder, and Pau Gasol with both his knees. Four future Hall of Famers all on the same team, all completely or partially hobbled by injuries heading into the post season. Heck, even backup point guard Steve Blake was hindered by a hamstring injury. So it was no wonder Laker fans panicked when they learned Meeks was doubtful to play the rest of the series against the Spurs. Who else was left to play?

Kobe Bryant suffered a brutal injury. When you add in the fact that he is coming to the end of a career that saw him play over 50,000 total minutes, it makes it even more difficult for Kobe to come back next season. I truly believe he will come back this season in the NBA and he play will make everyone forget how worried they were for him a few months ago. But what is he coming back to? Howard fled to Houston for less money and the biggest free agent the Lakers could bring in this offseason was Nick Young, a sporadic player whose shooting percentages are hurt in large part due to his immaturity and poor shot decision making. Having Young and Kobe on the floor together is going to lead to nothing but frustration for Kobe as Young, heading into his 8th year, is going to not only take shots away from the future Hall of Famer, but do so while taking shots Young should not be taking. Maybe Kobe will be able to impart some wisdom and advice on the young forward, or maybe the two will get along just as well as Kobe and Dwight.

I truly have no idea what to expect out of this team. If Kobe, Nash, and Gasol can all come back healthy then this team will have a shot no matter what. But the trick here with the Lakers is that if they want to make a run in the postseason, those players will have to be preserved and their numbers limited during the regular season to make sure they have the energy to make a playoff push. But who is going to step up in their place during the regular season? Young is an electric player but can win a game for your team just as easily as he can lose it. Chris Kaman, the man charged with replacing Howard in the middle, has averaged less than 30 minutes per game in his last three seasons. Finally, the bench is filled with rookies (Elias Harris, Ryan Kelly) and underachieving/nomadic veterans (Jordan Hill, Wesley Johnson, Steve Blake, Xavier Henry). But hey, they still have Jodie Meeks.

Phoenix Suns

2012-2013 Record: 25-57 (15th in West)

Key Additions: Eric Bledsoe, Alex Len, Gerald Green, Archie Goodwin, Miles Plumlee

Key Losses: Jared Dudley, Luis Scola, Michael Beasley, Wesley Johnson

Projected Staring Lineup: Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, P.J. Tucker, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat

Over the last couple of years, the Suns seemed to have been in basketball purgatory, good enough to be in the playoff conversation but by the end of the season they found themselves with a late lottery pick. They also maintained a weird roster containing a mix of veterans towards the end of their careers and rookies who were role players with not much potential. After last year, finishing with the worst record in the Western Conference, the Suns have finally embraced the rebuilding process.

I do not think Eric Bledsoe is a player you can build your team around. He is an explosive athlete who can touch the stat sheet in every way, but I think the Suns are going to expect more from him than he can provide. I have seen him play and he is very exciting to watch because he is a high energy guy who can jump out of the arena, but in my opinion Bledsoe is just a small piece to the puzzle. Re-signing their other guard, Goran Dragic, showed that the Suns are committed to a Bledsoe-Dragic backcourt tandem for the future. Dragic is a point guard who is going to look to pass first and create for his teammates, so if Bledsoe can improve his shooting then this could be a nice looking backcourt.

The Suns are taking risks on their young players. The Suns drafted center Alex Len with the 5th pick in this past draft. I think Len was drafted too high, expecially when someone like Nerlens Noel is still on the board. However, Len does have the ability to play behind a seasoned veteran and fellow Eastern European native in Marcin Gortat. Therefore, Len does not need to be thrown in to the fire wait away, he has a chance to learn the NBA from a solid veteran. In addition, last season the Suns, who drafted Markieff Morris with the 13th pick in 2011, traded for his twin brother Marcus, who was drafted by Houston with the very next pick. The Morris twins, who played together their whole lives up until the NBA, are now back together again. The first couple of seasons did not result in the performances they were expected to have and the Suns hope that the reason is only because they were not wearing the same uniform. Now that they are back together, they are expected to live up to their potential. If it turns out that all they needed was to be on the same team, Suns management looks like a genius by bringing the two together. If they still cannot perform, the Suns are stuck with a set of brothers who do not have what it takes to play in the NBA, whether they are on the same team or not. The Suns are not going anywhere anytime soon, so they can take a couple of seasons to twist and tweak their roster around as well as build up their young guys.

Sacramento Kings

2012-2013 Record: 28-54 (13th in West)

Key Additions: Ben McLemore, Carl Landry, Greivis Vasquez, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute

Key Losses: Tyreke Evans, Toney Douglas

Projected Starting Lineup: Greivis Vasquez, Ben McLemore, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Jason Thompson, DeMarcus Cousins

Perhaps the biggest offseason acquisition the Kings made this season was adding Shaquille O’Neal as a minority owner. The Kings, in trading Tyreke Evans to the New Orleans Pelicans, have decided to build around center DeMarcus Cousins, who received  a big contract extension to this offseason. Cousins, a wildly talented big man, has had more than a few issues off the court, being punished multiple times from both his team and the league in the form of fines and suspensions. In the beginning of the season last year, after a game against the Spurs which involved Spurs color commentator Sean Elliot saying some not-so-positive things about Cousins, Cousins came out after the game to confront Elliot about the comments. It is this kind of stupid, unprofessional behavior that needs to end if Cousins wants to live up to the potential that is so clearly there for him. O’Neal is going to help Cousins stay on track. Shaq had his own attitude problems dealing with Bryant back when they were both on the Lakers but he got through it and continued to have one of the most dominant careers ever for a center. If Cousins is even slightly smart, he will listen and follow everything Shaq has to say, both on and off the court. Cousins has some help in the front court, Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes, two players who have made a career out of hustling on every play and crashing the boards hard, will alleviate some rebounding pressure for Cousins. Jason Thompson should also be able to hold his own on both ends of the court.

Vasquez had a breakout year last year with the Pelicans, so the Kings decided to grab him and pair him with rookie Ben McLemore in the backcourt. Vasquez, who averaged 14 points, 9 assists, and 4 rebounds last year, is not going to put up those numbers in Sacramento. I think he had a great season but he is not going to be able to repeat it, especially with Isaiah Thomas as his backup. In New Orleans, Vasquez was really the only ball handler for most of the year, rookie Austin Rivers had a terrible season and Eric Gordon missed about half the games. Vasquez took advantage of his increased time with the ball, but he will not get as much time with it on the Kings. He will be a good game manager, but do not expect nine assists from him.

If McLemore can have a decent rookie year for the Kings, and maybe even if Jimmer Fredette can provide a little production off of the bench, I can see this team battling for a playoff spot in the final month of the season. We can expect double doubles from Cousins and close to that from Thompson. Vasquez is going to be able to move the ball well and Mbah a Moute will be able to guard the best players on opposing teams with his hounding defense. The team is still young with no playoff experience, but the pieces are definitely there for years to come.

Prediction:

1) Los Angeles Clippers

2) Golden State Warriors

3) Los Angeles Lakers

4) Sacramento Kings

5) Phoenix Suns