2013-2014 NBA Preview: Southwest Division

Dallas Mavericks

2012-2013 Record: 41-41 (10th in West)

Key Additions: Jose Calderon, Samuel Dalembert, Monta Ellis, Devin Harris, DeJuan Blair, Shane Larkin, Wayne Ellington, Fab Melo

Key Losses: Darren Collison, O.J. Mayo, Chris Kamen, Mike James, Elton Brand

Projected Starting Lineup: Jose Calderon, Monta Ellis, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, Samuel Dalembert

Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion. Those are the only two players left on the Dallas Mavericks from their 2010-2011 championship season. The team has seen almost a complete turnover in the last two seasons. With Nowitzki, 35, coming to the end of his career, the Mavs hope to make one final run to the Finals with him as the centerpiece. The main players who are hoping to help the team make a playoff run behind Nowitzki are relatively playoff inexperienced. Newly acquired Jose Calderon and Monta Ellis will compose the starting backcourt that hopes to keep Nowitzki rested until playoff time. The two guards, in a combined 16 years in the NBA, have only made the
playoffs a total of four times, with one of them, Ellis, making it to the second round once with the Warriors in 2007. But during the regular season both players have proven themselves. Ellis is good for 20 points a game and Calderon, who has been stuck in Toronto for a long time, is always a threat for double digit points and assists.

Jae Crowder, the second round pick just a year ago, provided plenty of energy in a limited role coming off the bench for the Mavs. He has earned a permanent spot on the team through his hard work, but will have to take on a larger role this year. Although Crowder is third in the small forward depth chart, at 23 years of age he is more than a decade younger than the two small forwards in front of him. Marion, 35, and Carter, 36, are on their last legs. Like Nowitzki, the coaching staff will hope to rest them during the regular season in order for them to be ready to take on bigger roles in the playoffs. The degree to which they play during the regular season will depend on the play of Crowder. Look for Crowder, who played about 17 minutes per game last season, to get more playing time while Marion and Carter each hover around the 25/30 minute mark. If the Mavs are going to make a playoff run, they need to make sure their older players are well rested for the postseason, which means Ellis, Calderon, and Crowder will need to get them there.

Houston Rockets

2012-2013 Record: 45-37 (8th in West)

Key Additions: Dwight Howard, Omri Casspi, Marcus Camby, Ronnie Brewer

Key Losses: Carlos Delfino, Thomas Robinson

Projected Starting Lineup: Jeremy Lin, James Harden, Chandler Parsons, Donatas Motiejunas, Dwight Howard

The Dwightmare is over, for now. Dwight is now where he wants to be. He chose to be in Houston and the pressure is on him to get them through the playoffs. Dwight, who was a coach’s bad dream in his last few years in Orlando and his only season in Los Angeles, can focus all of his energy on winning basketball games instead of answering free agency questions. His coach this season, Kevin McHale is a legendary big man for the Boston Celtics and can impart great wisdom on Howard in helping him improve his post game. In order for Howard to get back into the good graces of the American public, he needs to win. People have forgotten about LeBron James’ ‘The Decision’ fiasco after the superstar won back-to-back NBA championships, and is looking to make that three in a row this year. People will only forget about how immature and, to be frank, stupid, Dwight acted, both on and of the court, the last couple of seasons if he wins in Houston. Lucky for him, he has a lot of help out in Houston.

The Houston Rockets are ready to win now. They have spent the money and are now looking for the results. Management has invested over $50 million this season alone on the salaries of Howard, Jeremy Lin, James Harden, and Omar Asik. Harden is looking like a franchise-caliber shooting guard after putting up tremendous numbers; 25.9 points, 5.8 assists, and 4.9 rebounds per game; in his first year as a full time starter. If all goes as expected for the team, Harden and Howard will become the best one-two punch in the league.

Jeremy Lin, as point guard, needs to be able to distribute the ball better this year and limit the turnovers. Lin, who averaged 2.9 turnovers per game last season, will be tasked with the job and making sure all the stars get their touches on the ball. However, his job is made easier not only by Harden, who can handle the ball extremely well on his own, but by his backups at the point guard position. Patrick Beverly proved himself a viable backup last season and Aaron Brooks, who had a quality NBA career before taking a break to play in China, looks to make his NBA comeback.

The bench is also bolstered by backup center Asik, who at over $8 million this season is an expensive backup. But will he be there long enough to see the team succeed? Asik has said he wants to be traded after Howard was signed, but the Rockets are set on keeping him around. Free agent signings Omri Casspi and Aaron Brooks are going to bring great energy off of the bench for the Rockets. However, the man playing in front of Casspi, Chandler Parsons, may be the biggest key to this team’s success. Parsons had a breakout year last year in his second season in the league, averaging 15.5 PPG while shooting over 38% from deep. If Parsons can continue to improve, his shooting will open up lanes for Harden to drive through to the paint and will give more room for Howard to work on the block.

Howard has nothing left to complain about. He has a massive contract with the team he wants to play for that is composed of plenty of talent. The ball is in his court, pun intended.

Memphis Grizzlies

2012-2013 Record: 56-26 (5th in West)

Key Additions: Mike Miller, Kosta Koufos

Key Losses: Darrell Arthur, Keyon Dooling, Tony Wroten, Austin Daye

Projected Starting Lineup: Mike Conley, Tony Allen, Quincy Pondexter, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol

The already giant big men of the Memphis Grizzlies got even bigger with the addition of Kosta Koufos, who averaged almost seven rebounds a game last season starting for the Denver Nuggets, who will be expected to provide support off of the bench this season for the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies, one of the seemingly few franchises in the league whose team revolves around their big men rather than their guards, kept their duo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol together, two players who seem to use their smarts to make up for their lack of athleticism in order to gobble up rebounds and finish from all over the court. Gasol, who like his brother Pau, is one of the best passing big men in the league, averaging four assist per game to go along with 14 points and 8 rebounds. Starting point guard Mike Conley has proven himself to be worthy of the starting position. He needs to continue to improve his ball handling.

The biggest loss for the Grizzlies this season was their coach, Lionel Hollins, who led Memphis to the Western Conference Finals where the team was swept by the San Antonio Spurs. Hollins, like George Karl, is succeeded by a rookie head coach. David Joerger has a high bar to clear for a team that made it to the semifinals last season under a different coach. No matter what seed this team gets, they were a five seed last season, they will be expected to come close to reaching the NBA Finals. Joerger was an assistant with the Grizzlies the last six years, so if there is anyone who knows this team well enough to step in and coach, it is probably him, but assistant coaching is very different from head coaching. 

Adding three point specialist Mike Miller to the roster, who has two championship rings the past two years with the Heat, shows that this team is looking to bring in veterans with championship experience in order to land the Western Conference championship trophy in Tennessee.

New Orleans Pelicans

2012-2013 Record: 27-55 (14th in West)

Key Additions: Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holliday, Greg Steimsma, Anthony Morrow, Jeff Withey

Key Losses: Robin Lopez, Greivis Vasquez, Xavier Henry

Projected Starting Lineup: Jrue Holliday, Eric Gordon, Al-Farouq Aminu, Anthony Davis, Jason Smith

The team formerly know as the Hornets enters its first season under their new nickname, the Pelicans. The Hornets were in a rebuilding process that would have taken a little while to develop. The Pelicans, after some big trades this offseason, are now looking to become a playoff team. The Pelicans drafted Nerlens Noel in this year’s draft, who was projected to go number one overall, when he fell to them at number six. They then flipped the center for veteran All-Star Jrue Holliday, coming off of a career season with the 76ers where he averaged 18 points, 8 assists, and 4 rebounds. On the other end, the Pelicans also traded with the Kings for Tyreke Evans, who has not had as good of a career as expected. His averages in points, assists, and rebounds have all decreased season by season in his four years in the NBA. The trio of Holliday, Evans, and Eric Gordon is an excellent group of young guards. Holliday is likely to start at point guard which leaves Evans and Gordon to battle it out at shooting guard. As of now, I think Gordon wins the job, which could be a blessing in disguise for Evans. Evans’ statistics have done nothing but disappoint out in Sacramento, where he was the go to creator. A change of scenery and role should help Evans bounce back from an underachieving career thus far. Coming off the bench for the Pelicans, I would put Evans in early consideration for 6th Man of the Year award, I really think this is going to be a good year for him.

Former number one overall pick Anthony Davis needs a partner in the frontcourt. His 13.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game should are excellent numbers for a rookie. He is extremely talented on the defensive end and has been working on his offensive game. If he can continue to develop his outside shot he can become deadly on the offensive end as well. His skills and potential are reminiscent of a young Kevin Garnett. The big man who will be playing next to Davis is still a question between Jason Smith and Greg Stiemsma. It will not really matter who gets the starting position, because I bet they will split time anyway.

The Pelicans also added another sharpshooter to the team, signing Anthony Morrow. Morrow joins Ryan Anderson as three point specialists who will be sure to stretch the floor for the Pelicans. Austin Rivers, going into his second year, needs to come back from a terrible rookie year for a player picked number ten overall. He struggled shooting all year, 37.2% from the field and 32.6% from three, and only averaged 6 points and 2 assists. Many called it the worst rookie year in history. With the additions of Holliday and Evans, Rivers has plenty of veterans to learn from and play behind.

Between Davis, Holliday, Gordon, and Evans, the Pelicans have a great core group of young guys to build around. They will not be expected to go very far right away,  because they are in an extremely tough division, but the potential is there that should pay dividends in a few short years.

San Antonio Spurs

2012-2013 Record: 58-24 (2nd in West)

Key Additions: Marco Belinelli

Key Losses: Gary Neal, DeJuan Blair

Projected Starting Lineup: Tony Parker, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan, Tiago Splitter

Somehow the Spurs can be in contention for an NBA championship with veteran stars while also building for the future with young players. Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker are 37, 36, and 31, respectively. Yet they continue to lead this team to one of the best records in the league and to playoff runs that usually end in the Finals. They are all proven stars who can take over big games and win it for their team. Together, along with coach Gregg Popovich, they have created an NBA dynasty. However, Popovich has the advantage of being able to rest his stars during the regular season because he has young players capable of stepping up in their places so that the three future Hall of Famers can stay fresh for a playoff run.

Kawhi Leonard was the breakout player of the 2013 NBA playoffs. The second year man out of San Diego State came into his own during the postseason. During the season he had a solid stat line of 11.9 points and 5.5 rebounds while shooting 49.4% from the field and 37.4% from deep. During the 21 games the Spurs played in the postseason, that saw the team lose in the Finals to the Heat in seven games, Leonard improved to 13.5 points and an astounding 9 rebounds while improving his shooting to 54.5% and 39%. Once Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker decide to hang it up, the 22 year old showed, along with center Tiago Splitter, the Spurs will be in good hands.

The loss of Gary Neal seems to hurt the Spurs more than expected. Neal was able to back up Parker with veteran decision making. However, he signed with the Bucks and the Spurs are left with a hole a point guard after Parker. Cory Joseph, Nando de Colo, and Patty Mills are the remaining point guards on this roster, but all of them are unproven. The three have a combined seven years of experience and none of them have averaged more than 17 minutes in a season. If Parker and Ginobili are going to be able to rest during the regular season, someone is going to have to and handle the ball for this team.

The regular season does not matter much to this team, whether they finish first or eighth in the West does not matter to them, they will wreak havoc in the playoffs regardless. One constant to the NBA that we have grown accustomed to over the years is that the Spurs will still be playing in May and often, in June.

Prediction:

1) Houston Rockets

2) San Antonio Spurs

3) Memphis Grizzlies

4) Dallas Mavericks

5) New Orleans Pelicans