2013-2014 NBA Preview: Southeast Division

Atlanta Hawks

2012-2013 Record: 44-38 (6th in East)

Key Additions: Paul Millsap, Elton Brand, Gustavo Ayon, Dennis Schroeder, DeMarre Carroll

Key Losses: Josh Smith, Devin Harris, Zaza Pachulia, DeShawn Stevenson, Ivan Johnson

Projected Starting Lineup: Jeff Teague, Lou Williams, Kyle Korver,                                                                           Paul Millsap, Al Horford

The problem with Al Horford over the last couple of years has been that Horford, a natural power forward, has been forced to play more down low as a center because of the lack of much rebounding on the Hawks. With the additions of Paul Millsap and Gustavo Ayon, Horford can take more of an active role outside the paint, showing off more of his midrange shot. Millsap and Ayon bring plenty of energy and rebounding ability to a team that lost big men Zaza Pachulia and Ivan Johnson this summer. A move for Horford
to more of an outside role and with the loss of Josh Smith, who signed with the Detroit Pistons, should see him average more than 20 points per game this season.

The Hawks will sport one of the most interesting, young point guard tandems to watch this season with starter Jeff Teague being backed up by rookie Dennis Schroeder. Teague took a great step forward last season, jumping from about 5 assists per game to more than 7. His quickness and vision should be able to create for sharpshooters Lou Williams, who is coming off of a torn ACL injury in January, Kyle Korver, and John Jenkins. Where the young Teague, who the Hawks hope to keep building around, needs to improve is his shooting. In an increased scoring role last season, Teague’s shooting percentage from the field dropped more than two percentage points, from 47.6% to 45.1%, but he took more than two more shots per game from the season before. Teague, who can get to the rim at will, needs to keep creating for his teammates but also needs to make sure he is a threat from the outside.

His backup, Schroeder, is one of the bigger unknowns coming into this season. He was lightly talked about until he played the United States in the Nike Hoops Summit, which is where his draft stock skyrocketed. Schroeder, the Germany native, dropped 18 points and 6 assists on the best young American players while shooting 50% from the field. Instead of taking a year or two off to continue to hone his skills in Europe, the 20 year old decided to jump right in to the NBA. He and Teague are both tremendously quick but they both need to improve drastically on their decision making. Teague averaged 2.9 turnovers per game last season and Schroeder, in his five NBA preseason games, has averaged 3.8 turnovers, racking up as many as 7 in his most recent.

The Hawks always seem to be a playoff team that is never really a threat to make any noise in the postseason. I do not see that changing this year, provided they even make the playoffs

Charlotte Bobcats

2012-2013 Record: 21-61 (14th in East)

Key Additions: Al Jefferson, Cody Zeller

Key Losses: Tyrus Thomas, Byron Mullens

Projected Starting Lineup: Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Josh McRoberts, Al Jefferson

The Bobcats have had three head coaches in the last three seasons. That pretty much says it all about the issues the Charlotte has been having while taking space in the basement of the league. Mike Dunlap, who made his NBA head coaching debut last season with the team, was replaced almost immediately after the season. The Bobcats now turn to Steve Clifford, also making his NBA head coaching debut, to do what most of the coaches before him have failed to do, which is get the Bobcats to a respectable level.

Clifford does have the talent on the floor but the puzzle is getting them to work together. Most of their team is riddled with the potential of young players who have not had much coaching consistency while in Charlotte and are looking for leadership. Most of the young guys on this team had great success in college, so losing in the NBA so much with the Bobcats comes as a culture shock. They did, however, open up the purse strings to sign Al Jefferson to a three year, $41 million contract, but the future success of this team is on the backs of their young players and the progress they continue to make, seven players on this team are 25 years old or younger.

How the mighty have fallen. Ben Gordon, the Sixth Man of the Year in 2005 with the Bulls, signed a massive contract with the Detroit Pistons in 2009 and it has all gone downhill from there. Gordon spent three seasons in Detroit where he averaged less than 14 points per game each season, a number he surpassed in each of his five seasons in Chicago. Traded to Charlotte in the summer of 2012, Gordon last year apparently had a confrontation with former coach Dunlap in practice where Gordon refused to stop bouncing the ball when Dunlap was addressing the team. Now he is coming off he bench, for the second straight year, for a team projected to be one of the worst in the NBA. Look for Gordon to be traded this year from the Bobcats, who probably will not want to infect their young players will Gordon’s bad attitude.

Miami Heat

2012-2013 Record: 66-16 (1st in East)

Key Additions: Michael Beasley, Greg Oden

Key Losses: Mike Miller

Projected Starting Lineup: Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Udonis Haslem, Chris Bosh

The Heat, once again, have a target on their back as teams try to stock up on talent in efforts to dethrone the back-to-back NBA Champions. The Heat pretty much stay where they are. The loss of Miller hurts a little as this team is built around surrounding their three stars with three point shooters, but sharpshooters Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis still remain. The issues come with the age of their role players. Allen (38) and Lewis (34) need to continue to make the outside shots they have made their entire careers in order to keep the lane open for James, Wade, and Bosh. Backups Chris Anderson and Shane Battier, both 35, will be leaned on to provide relief for the stars in front of them on the depth chart. The questions behind this team are not really ‘what have they done to improve this offseason?’ but rather ‘what have other teams done to challenge them?’

There is not much more to dissect about this team that has been to the NBA Finals the last three years. LeBron James needs to focus on his game as he looks to win back-to-back NBA MVPs as opposed to being distracted by the many free agent questions he will be getting. Dwyane Wade, who has become quite injury prone, needs to be healthy by playoff time.

Like the Spurs, the success of the Heat in the regular season will mean very little. As long as they make the playoffs, which they will, no team will want to face them.

Orlando Magic

2012-2013 Record: 20-62 (15th in East)

Key Additions: Jason Maxiell, Victor Oladipo

Key Losses: Beno Udrih

Projected Starting Lineup: Jameer Nelson, Aaron Afflalo, Maurice Harkless, Glen Davis, Nikola Vucevic

The Magic cannot wait to get Hedo Turkoglu off of their books. The 2008 Most Improved Player of the Year recipient has been nothing but disappointment since helping lead the team to a birth in the Finals the very next year. For a team that finished dead last in the NBA standings this season and is looking to rebuild, the last thing they need is a 34 year old, washed up veteran with a big contract. However, since expiring contracts are the new fad in the NBA, the Magic may be able to move Turkoglu to a team looking to make a splash in free agency next season, when players like LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony are expected to test the waters. If the Magic can flip Turkoglu for a young player or two and some draft picks, look for the Turkey native to be on the move.

The good news is that last year’s worst team in the league has nowhere to go but up. The bad news is that it take be a while for them to get out from amongst the NBA’s bottom feeders. Rarely does the worst team in the NBA get the first pick in the draft and that pattern continued last year when the lottery resulted in the Magic getting the second pick. They used that pick to select Victor Oladipo who, on a team that is desperate for talent, was probably the safest pick to Charlotte could have made. Oladipo has done nothing but improve since he enrolled at Indiana. In his three years playing for the Hoosiers, Oladipo increased his per game statistics in points, blocks, steals, assists, rebounds, and free throw percentage each season. As a guard, he shot an astounding 59.9% from the field and 44.1% from three in his third and final year for Indiana. However, there are questions as to whether Oladipo can score at the NBA level against high quality defenders. He has trouble creating his own shot and his ball handling skills and decision making needs a little work. One aspect of his game where Oladipo will exceed, however, is his defending. Oladipo, who was Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year last season, was arguably the best perimeter defender in the nation. He could very well be in that same conversation this season in the NBA. But the Magic will hope that they used their second overall pick on more than just a defensive specialist.

With the 2014 NBA draft class expected to be one of the best the league has seen in years, the Magic will probably finish yet again with one of the worst records in the league with hopes of getting that top pick.

Washington Wizards

2012-2013 Record: 29-53 (12th in East)

Key Additions: Eric Maynor, Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat, Shannon Brown, Kendall Marshall

Key Losses: Emeka Okafor

Projected Starting Lineup: John Wall, Bradley Beal, Martell Webster, Nene, Marcin Gortat

The Wizards are ready to make the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and give franchise point guard John Wall his first taste of postseason basketball. Washington recently completed a trade with the Phoenix Suns that sent center Marcin Gortat and guards Shannon Brown, Kendall Marshall, and Malcolm Lee to Washington in exchange for Emeka Okafor’s expiring contract and a 2014 protected first round pick. This trade shows that the Wizards are tired of drafting in the lottery and want to start playing some extra basketball. Gortat, the main piece in this trade, gives the Wizards solid veteran play at the center position to go along with Nene at the power forward position. This combination should work well for the Wizards as Gortat can play on the block but also excels at getting points in the midrange game while Nene likes to bang bodies inside. Both, however, will take back seats in scoring to the backcourt of the Wizards.

         The Wizards need production out of other high draft picks on their team. Big men Kevin Seraphin, drafted number seventeen overall in 2010 by the Chicago Bulls, and Jan Vesely, the sixth pick in 2011, have been very disappointing in their first few years in the NBA, failing to even average double digit points or more than five rebounds in a single season. Bradley Beal also needs to continue to improve his shooting from his rookie season and rookie and third overall pick Otto Porter Jr. will be asked to produce almost immediately.

Whether or not the Wizards make the playoffs will rely almost solely on John Wall. Wall, who has one of the quickest first steps in the league, needs to not only shoot better but also be a better decision maker if the Wizards want to finish in the top eight in the Eastern Conference this season. Wall has the massive contract now, he signed a five year $80 million deal this summer, but needs to show he is worth franchise point guard money. He needs to improve on his shooting percentage drastically as he averaged 18.5 PPG last season but shot a mere 44.1% from the field and a dreadful 26.7% from three. He also averaged 7.8 assists last season but matched that with 3.2 turnovers. In order for Wall to continue to blow by defenders and get to the rim, he needs to be a threat from the outside as well. Otherwise defenders will play off of him more, which will also mean tougher shots for Beal and Otto Porter. The Wizards’ playoff chances are close to completely reliant on Wall’s shot.

Prediction:

1) Miami Heat

2) Washington Wizards

3) Atlanta Hawks

4) Charlotte Bobcats

5) Orlando Magic